While Stocks Wobble, a Forgotten Macro Trade Is Bottoming
Institutional Cross-Asset Market Intelligence
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The AI infrastructure trade has lost momentum, as we explained in a previous 10x What Matters report, and over the last couple of months, many of the market’s favorite trades have been unwound. Still, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have largely managed to consolidate rather than correct outright, as some of the AI unwinding has found its way back into the hyperscalers, as well as into financials and healthcare stocks.
It’s worth taking a closer look at the technical levels of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, as a longer consolidation phase could be ahead. But more importantly, we think it’s time to revisit one of our favorite macro trades, one that has seen a large price correction, but where the technicals, notably on the weekly timeframe, suggest a multi-month bottom could be forming. This is currently our favorite trade in the market, and one that’s potentially less correlated to any equity correction.
Below, we walk through the technicals for the Nasdaq, which carry more weight here given how closely they tie into the AI trade. We also lay out the technicals and our rationale for our favorite macro trade, one that could play out over the next couple of months, and explain why today might be an opportune time to revisit this forgotten trade.
We also explain why the latest escalation with Iran and the cancellation of the US-Iran MOU should not be a surprise.
The technicals for our favorite macro trade look compelling
