Introduction / encouragement to read the PDFs:

The SpaceX IPO has landed. The first wave of the trade is behind us. What comes next is more interesting: a post-IPO correction that has reset entry points across the entire ecosystem, from the pure-play high-beta names to the Taiwanese suppliers the institutional indices have never heard of.

This report sets out exactly where we are looking to re-enter and why the multi-year thesis is intact. To get the full picture, we strongly encourage subscribers to read both attachments alongside this note. The 20-page chart book gives you the complete technical picture, every name in the index with 7-day and 30-day moving average signals, relative strength versus SpaceX, and Top Chart designations. The 19-page consolidated report, After Liftoff: The SpaceX IPO Has Landed — Now the Real Ecosystem Trade Begins — provides the full investment framework: the SpaceX valuation gap, the supply chain thesis, the regression analysis, and the company-by-company breakdown across all ten categories. Together they represent two to three months of primary research on the most important new investment theme of 2026. Start there.

The Blue Origin explosion on May 28, 2026, triggered a sharp correction across space stocks that has extended through the SpaceX IPO, as investors rotated out of the higher-beta names and into SpaceX directly. That rotation is understandable, but ultimately misses the point. SpaceX itself has evolved into an aggressive AI and data infrastructure company. Starlink is as much a computing layer as it is a satellite network, whereas the smaller pure-plays and supply chain names are more purely exposed to the space economy itself. Over a multi-year horizon, we expect the broader ecosystem to outperform SpaceX as the IPO premium fades and the market begins to price in the supply chain opportunity more systematically.

The pullback has created compelling re-entry levels across the index. On the pure-play side, we are watching the UFO ETF near $48, Rocket Lab in the low $90s, Intuitive Machines around $23, BlackSky Technology near $28, Redwire Space at $12, and Planet Labs around $26. These are levels where the risk/reward tilts back in favor of the bull case.

On the supplier side, the four Taiwanese names, Compeq, Universal Microwave, Tong Hsing, and WNC Corp, remain our highest conviction longer-term positions despite their small-cap liquidity constraints. These companies are structurally embedded in the Starlink production ramp and will compound quietly long after the IPO excitement has moved on. Filtronic near £300 and CPS Technologies around $6 round out the supplier watchlist as two of the most direct and highest-leverage SpaceX proxies available in listed markets.

Why We Like These Three Categories

Pure-Play Space & High Beta (RKLB, LUNR, BKSY, RDW, PL, ASTS, FLY, MDA, YSS)

This is the highest-conviction, highest-volatility bucket in the index, the names that move most directly with the SpaceX narrative and reprice most aggressively around catalysts. The category averaged +205% over the past year, reflecting the scale of the re-rating that has already occurred, as well as the magnitude of the correction opportunity now that the post-IPO pullback has reset entry points. These are not value stocks. They are optionality instruments on the commercialization of space, and they should be sized accordingly. The right approach is to treat this bucket as the high-beta core of a space allocation, own the names with the strongest relative strength signals (RKLB, ASTS, RDW currently flagged as Top Charts), keep position sizes disciplined given the drawdown potential, and use the 7-day and 30-day moving average framework (see attached PDF chart book) to time entries rather than buying into weakness indiscriminately. The average 3-month return of +35.6% with a 1-month pullback of -7.7% is a textbook consolidation setup within a larger uptrend.

SpaceX Suppliers — Taiwan, Korea & UK (FTC.L, WNC, Compeq, Universal Microwave, Tong Hsing, CPSH, Sphere Corp)

This is the most proprietary and least-crowded bucket in the index, names that most institutional investors have never modeled. These companies supply the RF components, ceramic substrates, PCBs, and thermal management hardware that go into every Starlink satellite and ground terminal SpaceX produces. Their revenues are not correlated to SpaceX’s stock price, they are correlated to SpaceX’s production volume, which is a fundamentally different and more durable driver. The 3-month average return of +46.3%, with a 1-year average of +229.5%, reflects what happens when a supply chain that has been quietly compounding is discovered by the market. The investment approach here is different from the pure-plays: these are not momentum trades to be timed around catalysts, they are structural positions to be built during pullbacks and held through the multi-year Starlink production ramp. The weekly volatility can be severe; CPSH was up +142% in a single week, so position sizing must account for liquidity and bid-ask spreads, particularly in the Taiwanese and Korean names. These are not names to chase after a 30% week; they are names to accumulate on red days when the broader space theme is under pressure.

Electronics & Semiconductors (MRCY, TTMI, MTSI)

This is the most defensible bucket in the index, companies with deep defense and government contract backlogs that provide revenue visibility independent of any single space program or IPO event. Mercury Systems, TTM Technologies, and MACOM are not pure space plays; they are defense electronics businesses that are deeply embedded in both the military satellite architecture and the commercial LEO supply chain. That dual exposure is the edge. When the pure-play space names correct on profit-taking or sentiment, the electronics names tend to hold better because their revenues are anchored in multi-year government contracts with predictable delivery schedules. TTMI’s 504% one-year return and MRCY’s 131% demonstrate that the market has begun to price this exposure more explicitly, but both still trade at significant discounts to pure-play space multiples despite having more durable revenue streams. The right approach is to treat this bucket as the quality anchor of a space allocation, a position you can hold through volatility without the same white-knuckle drawdown risk as the high-beta names. Size these larger, trade them less, and let the compounding defense contract cycle do the work.

Accompanying this report are two additional resources available to all subscribers: our 20-page chart book covering the full space stock universe with technical setups and relative strength analysis, and our 19-page consolidated research report — After Liftoff: The SpaceX IPO Has Landed — Now the Real Ecosystem Trade Begins — which documents our coverage of the space economy over the past two to three months. Together, they provide the complete analytical framework behind the positions and entry levels discussed above.

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In November 2022, an AI chatbot reached 100 million users in two months. Forty-two months later, the company that was “counted out of the game” filed for the largest IPO in history at a $965 billion valuation, on a $47 billion revenue run rate, after the US Treasury Secretary and the Fed Chair summoned bank CEOs to an emergency meeting about its newest model.

Our AI Era report is the complete record: every model release, funding round, market shock, and policy intervention from ChatGPT to Claude Fable 5, the first “Mythos-class” model released to the public, a system so capable its maker openly admits it must be throttled before civilians can touch it, and which sold out its own compute within days of launch.

But this is not a timeline. It is a framework. We show you the S-curve mechanics that let investors buy Nvidia at four times earnings and Anthropic at $183 billion, nine months before it filed at $965 billion. We show you why we are at ten basis points of true AI adoption, not saturation. And we show you exactly who captures the value next, across twenty-seven names from Seoul to Santa Clara.

The fourth great institutional rupture is underway.

Our latest report, “From ChatGPT to Mythos: The 27 Stocks Defining the Five Layers of the AI Era,” is available below. Because this is a comprehensive, 43-page PDF, we recommend downloading the report to review it at your convenience.

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Bitcoin has shed over 50% since October, and the narrative pointing to MicroStrategy’s selling as the culprit misses the real story entirely. The true driver is XXX and it has been hiding in plain sight.

This is not noise. It is institutional capital making a deliberate, coordinated exit, and the reason comes down to one variable, and it’s not MicroStrategy. It is something the big Wall Street investors base their decision on.

In this report, we explain why Bitcoin has decoupled from the equity rally, what our framework tells us about where this bear market ends, and what on-chain data suggest the real downside risk is from here.

Bitcoin (LHS) vs. the real driver of Bitcoin ?

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Our 10x Research Space Basket +35% Since April. We map the Full Ecosystem.

This is our 7th report about the opportunity in the space economy sector and as the SpaceX IPO narrative is gaining momentum, and so is our basket. Since we launched the 10x Research Space Index on April 3, 2026 (see report), it is up 35%. The correlation between SpaceX and our basket is not a coincidence: our regression analysis shows an R² of 0.87, making it one of the cleanest ways to express the trade in a listed vehicle.

Last week, we added the SpaceX supplier bucket. That group is up approximately 30% in a single week. This week, we are adding a few more stocks.

The attached report maps the complete space ecosystem across nine categories, from pure-play operators and satellite connectivity names through to SpaceX suppliers, raw materials, specialty alloys, and electronics. This is the full value chain, not just the headline beta plays. A SpaceX IPO re-rates the entire stack.

Please find the attached pdf for a complete overview

Stock performance of our 10x Research Space Basket (here)

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The Space Economy is entering its most explosive phase yet. While the broader markets search for direction, the Space ETF has surged +20% since our April 3 report, fueled by a relentless rally in high-beta, pure-play space stocks that are up +27% in the last month alone. But the real firestorm is brewing beneath the surface.

The highly anticipated SpaceX IPO is expected within the month. As the company prepares to raise a massive $70 billion from investors, media exposure will reach a fever pitch. Institutional appetite is already boiling over: the SpaceX tracking asset on Hyperliquid is trading at a staggering 36% premium to its projected $1.75 trillion IPO valuation, strongly signaling a massive first-day pop when the shares officially begin trading.

To help our premium subscribers navigate and profit from this historic event, we have drastically expanded our flagship Chart Book to 31 charts covering 27 companies. Most importantly, we have cracked open a brand-new, sixth investment category: The Hidden SpaceX Supply Chain.

Because SpaceX rarely discloses its vendor partnerships, these stocks have largely flown under Wall Street’s radar. If you are waiting for the IPO to buy SpaceX, you are already too late. The real institutional “playbook” is positioning in the critical component suppliers right now before the retail crowd connects the dots.

(pdf chart book included with 30 charts)

SpaceX valuation is ticking higher

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This was originally published in our 10x Market Updates, but it’s also relevant for 10x What Matters subscribers - in case you have not seen it yet.

Bitcoin, SpaceX, Palantir: The Infrastructure War That Will Decide Your Future

SpaceX is the missing half of the Bitcoin thesis, and the two are more connected than most investors realize. This is not about Mars. It is not about moon missions. It is about control: who controls the money, who controls the network, and who controls the infrastructure that makes both possible.

In 10x What Matters (here), we have covered the space economy extensively because it matters for our future. The five pure-play space stock picks have returned an average of 351% over the past year. Now the biggest IPO in history is being priced, and the window to position ahead of it is three weeks.

SpaceX is targeting the largest IPO in history on June 12. Most investors will read the prospectus and see a rocket company and a satellite internet business. They will be looking at the wrong business.

The real thesis is what happens when launch costs hit $100 per kilogram, a 500x reduction from where the industry started. At that price, data centers move to orbit. Cooling becomes free. Power becomes abundant. Jurisdiction disappears. And Bitcoin, which has always had one remaining physical vulnerability, finally loses it.

SpaceX share price valued at different venues

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The Space Economy: Key Observations and Fundamental Cross-Checks

The Space Economy remains one of our highest-conviction thematic equity views. SpaceX’s IPO roadshow is now confirmed for late June or early July, is pricing at a $1.75 trillion valuation, and prediction markets assign a 93% probability that the IPO will occur before August 31. More striking is what the market expects to happen after the bell rings: a 70% probability that SpaceX’s market cap surpasses $2 trillion on the open.

The most important distinction in the current space basket is between names where analyst estimates are actively moving higher, which are the stocks with the highest probability of further re-rating, and names where the momentum is either stale or reversed. The post-Q1 earnings round has reshuffled the deck considerably.

This report updates our Space Economy coverage with technical momentum analysis across key names, cross-referenced against the latest quarterly earnings and management guidance. We first published our SpaceX IPO thesis and the stock to trade on April 3, followed by updates on April 7 and April 17. The setup has only strengthened since.

Over the past month, secondary market pricing shows SpaceX up 6.3%, but the pure-play space and high-beta names have outrun the mothership: pure-play launch and space systems stocks gained 20.3%, satellite and connectivity names added 15.1%, and the benchmark space ETF rose 8%. The sector is repricing faster than SpaceX itself.

Our highest-conviction ideas, those passing our full technical and fundamental screen, are listed below, followed by a detailed PDF report covering every stock in the universe.

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Follow the Checkbook: Nvidia’s $150 Billion Tells You Exactly Where the AI Bottlenecks Are

Jensen Huang published a short blog post in March 2026 that most investors read as a technology manifesto. We read it as a capital allocation map. His five-layer framework, energy, chips, infrastructure, models, and applications describe the full stack required to industrialize intelligence. But there is a layer he did not include, because Nvidia does not sell copper. We call it Layer 0. And it may be the most important investment in the stack.

The performance data is slowly making the case. Over the past six months, the layers closest to software are down double digits. The layers closest to physical scarcity are up 55–99%. Institutional capital is shifting from the top of the cake to the bottom, and most benchmarks have not yet moved.

In this issue of What Matters, we map all six layers, track every investment Nvidia has made across the stack, eleven deals totalling over $150 billion in the last eight months alone, analyse what those investments reveal about where the real bottlenecks are forming, and identify the specific assets and companies that connect the AI buildout directly back to the commodity supercycle, the monetary debasement story, and the privatisation of the frontier that underpin everything we write.

The trade everyone is making is the top of the cake. The trade that matters is the base.

Continue reading below.

The 6-layers - investors have focused on L1, L2, and L3 (1-year change)

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Although we remain broadly bullish on risk assets, particularly technology and semiconductors, the S&P 500’s sharp recovery from its April lows is showing unmistakable signs of fatigue. Several of our key technical indicators are now flipping from overbought back into correction mode, momentum breadth has narrowed dramatically, and one indicator that predicted the January top is once again issuing a warning.

We have been tracking this setup since February, when we first flagged bearish divergences at 6,851 and set a downside target of 6,143–6,207, a target the market nearly reached (missed by 2%). The question now is whether history is about to rhyme. Subscribers continue below for our full technical analysis, indicator breakdown, and what we are watching next. We also attach two chart books: 1) S&P 500 daily, weekly, and monthly charts, and 2) Global ETF + U.S. Sector ETFs + Macro ETFs.

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SpaceX Pre-IPO: The Listed Universe Still Has Room to Run

The benchmark space ETF has rallied +11% in less than two weeks (since our April 7 analysis), and the opportunity is far from over. With SpaceX widely expected to IPO before or shortly after this summer at a record $1.75 trillion valuation, we mapped the full investable universe of publicly traded space stocks and ETFs into five categories, ranked by return potential. We also included a chart book with all the charts to help you get your head around those stocks.

Last week’s returns validated the framework: pure-play space names led with +18%, satellite and connectivity followed at +14%, while defense and legacy infrastructure lagged at -3%. Starlink, generating $11.4 billion in revenue and $7.2 billion in EBITDA last year, with margins expanding from 41% to 63%, is the financial engine underpinning the entire SpaceX story.

Overlay the SpaceX pre-IPO price against our publicly listed benchmark (yes, you can buy this today), and the performance gap is striking; there still appears to be significant upside relative to where SpaceX is trading. Our 10x Research Space Index concentrates exposure in exactly the two categories that are driving returns. The theme has further to run, and precision of positioning will determine who captures it.

Still plenty of upside ahead until the SpaceX IPO?

2026 04 17 Spacex Orbit Pre Ipo Chart Book

359KB ∙ PDF file

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The Probability Question(s) That Actually Matter(s)

After weeks of volatility, the data is now pointing in one direction. Our proprietary trading models show a perfect statistical track record for gold over the next three months, and equities are not far behind. Most investors won’t act on this. Not because the numbers are ambiguous, but because the portfolio they imply runs directly against current headlines and market consensus. That gap between what the data says and what the crowd believes is precisely where the opportunity sits.

Below the paywall, we lay out four specific trades, a multi-asset portfolio with a clear directional tilt, and walk through the probability framework behind each position. We also flag a forthcoming macro event that consensus is almost certainly mispricing, and which could act as an additional catalyst for this exact positioning.

A left-tail risk does exist, and we will not obscure it. But portfolio construction is a probability exercise, not a certainty exercise. On that basis, the case for this allocation is difficult to argue against. The numbers are below.

Gold, SP500, EM ETFs, dead cat bounce, or what are the numbers saying?

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A Quick Update on Our $4,400 Gold Entry

In our March 20 report, “Gold Is Breaking Its Most Important Rule,” we argued that the market was mispricing gold by unwinding its exposure due to rising real interest rates. The prevailing view was that higher oil prices, driven by supply disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz, would lift inflation expectations and pressure gold. However, this interpretation overlooked the more dominant driver: structural indebtedness.

Rather than higher inflation expectations derailing gold’s bull market, the expansion of fiscal deficits, accelerated by war-related spending and rising global military outlays, continues to provide a powerful tailwind. At the time, with gold trading at $4,623, we identified an “ideal long-term accumulation zone” around $4,400. While prices briefly dipped below that level, gold has since rebounded to $4,820, marking a 10% move higher.

Gold rebounding from our $4,400 “ideal re-entry level” (now at $4,820)

Recent geopolitical developments reinforce this view. While details of the latest agreement remain limited (or unconfirmed), it appears that Iran retains control over the Strait of Hormuz and may be settling transit flows in Chinese yuan (potentially equivalent $2mln per transit). Reports also suggest that China played a key role in facilitating the ceasefire, effectively strengthening its strategic influence in the region through its relationship with Iran.

At the same time, Gulf states have been forced to reassess the reliability of U.S. security guarantees, particularly given the limited effectiveness of traditional defenses against missile and drone attacks. This could prompt a recalibration of regional alliances, potentially weakening one of the structural pillars supporting the U.S. dollar.

The market response reflects this shift: the dollar is weakening while gold is rallying. In our view, this is not coincidental but a direct repricing of geopolitical and monetary dynamics. Gold has now reclaimed its 20-day moving average at $4,729, and as long as prices hold above this level, the structural bull trend remains intact.

Bottom line: The +10% gold rally is not just justified, it remains one of the highest-conviction trades in the current macro environment. Please revisit the full report here.

Licensed to: Confidential – Licensed for the exclusive use of the recipient. Redistribution, forwarding, copying, or publication without prior written permission from 10x Research is strictly prohibited and may result in termination of the subscription.

Disclaimer: This email and any attached research are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any assets. 10x Research does not provide personalized investment advice and is not registered as a broker-dealer or investment adviser. Views are the authors’ own and subject to change. Please consult a qualified professional before making financial decisions. ©10x Research.

Why this report matters

SpaceX is preparing what could be the largest IPO in stock market history, but the most important story is not the listing itself. It is what happens in the 15 trading days that follow. This report builds on our previous publication, Beyond Space: 7 Stocks Positioned for the SpaceX IPO Trade. Where that report focused on the equity ecosystem surrounding SpaceX, this one addresses a dimension the market has largely overlooked: the mechanical impact of index inclusion on a float so small it has no modern precedent.

Once SpaceX lists, passive trackers managing $520 billion in Nasdaq 100 assets will be forced buyers, and the supply available to absorb that demand is a fraction of what those flows require. Alongside our 10x Research Space 7-stock basket, we present three additional vehicles carrying direct SpaceX exposure, each with a different risk profile, fee structure, and degree of concentration.

SpaceX share price (LHS) vs. SpaceX Market Cap (RHS)

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Why this report matters

SpaceX is poised to break IPO records in the coming months, as the company rapidly evolves beyond a traditional space business into a broader infrastructure and technology platform. From a universe of 18 space-related equities, we have identified seven stocks best positioned to benefit disproportionately from this listing, as a new, largely underappreciated growth segment within the space economy begins to emerge.

The global economy is on the cusp of its next foundational shift. Much like the internet in the 1990s or cloud computing in the 2010s, space is transitioning from a speculative frontier into the essential infrastructure layer for the next decade of global growth. This comprehensive report provides an institutional-grade deep dive into the Space Economy, moving beyond the “rocket science” to reveal where the real profit pools are being built.

Readers will move beyond the common misconceptions that plague space investing. This report equips you with: The Three-Layer Value Framework: A strategic map of the industry spanning Infrastructure (launch), Platforms (satellites/networks), and Applications (data/analytics). Insights into why the highest returns are accruing in the “application layer”, where scalable, recurring-revenue models are outperforming capital-intensive hardware.

The upcoming SpaceX IPO, targeted for June 2026, will be a gravity-shifting event for global equity markets. With a potential base valuation of $1.75 trillion, SpaceX is no longer being valued as an aerospace firm, but as a hybrid between a global telecom utility and an AI infrastructure giant. This report explains why SpaceX’s dominance in launch, capturing 90% of the commercial market, is merely the “moat” that protects its true value engine.

This report provides the proprietary 10x Space Index proxies and institutional analysis needed to navigate this transition.

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Our 10x Space Index 1-year return (LHS) vs. SpaceX Valuation (RHS, $trn)

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Why this report matters

The S&P 500 has now corrected roughly 10% from its recent highs, exactly in line with prior geopolitical drawdowns and typical mid-term election patterns. But while most investors are focused on headlines around war, inflation, and rate hikes, the more important question is whether this is the start of something (structurally) deeper, or simply a textbook correction setting up the next move higher.

Our analysis suggests the market is approaching a critical inflection point. Key support levels, positioning dynamics, and oversold technicals are beginning to align in a way that has historically marked turning points. Yet, the timing and magnitude of any rebound will depend on a few signals that most investors are currently overlooking.

👉 In the full report, we break down the exact levels to watch. We also include our full chart book, with 31 daily, weekly, and monthly S&P 500 charts that highlight the technical setup and identify the levels of interest where investors make calculated decisions.

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Why this report matters

In our “What Matters” cross-asset report two weeks ago (here), we highlighted that bond markets had begun pricing in renewed rate hikes, a dynamic that has now moved to the forefront as the Iran conflict triggers far-reaching macro consequences that will unfold over weeks and months. Based on our regression analysis, inflation could rise from 2.4% to 3.4%, as we previously outlined. This view is increasingly moving into consensus, with central bankers now openly acknowledging the upside risks to inflation. Gold has now reached our initial $4,400 target, which we flagged just a week ago (here).

However, as sovereign debt issuance accelerates and fiscal pressures intensify, governments are increasingly forced to raise liquidity. As seen in Turkey, where the central bank sold 60 tons of gold, other central banks may sell gold reserves to generate cash and subsidize rising fuel costs, introducing a potential source of supply even amid structurally bullish conditions.

While the immediate impact, energy shortages, is increasingly visible, particularly in Asia where dependency is highest (from fuel shortages in Australia to driving restrictions in South Korea), the full shock is only starting to propagate through the system: gradually at first, and then all at once.

However, the more important story lies in the second-order effects. These extend well beyond energy markets and tend to persist even if oil supply normalizes, embedding themselves into input costs, supply chains, and inflation expectations. Below, we outline how this transmission cycle works and why, despite the risk of a broader risk-off move, a select group of 18 global equities (spanning Canada, Hong Kong, the U.S., Saudi Arabia, the Netherlands, Chile, Russia, and Germany) could emerge as key beneficiaries of this evolving macro regime. During the last crisis in 2022, those stocks rallied 2-5x.

Some prices are moving - others could catch up

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Bitcoin is holding firm, oil is weakening, and equities are nearing a key turning point. At the same time, the geopolitical backdrop is quietly shifting. Markets are beginning to price in stabilization, but is that too early?

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In last week’s What Matters report, we highlighted that markets were beginning to price in rate hikes as central banks leaned increasingly hawkish in response to upside inflation risks. Based on this, we outlined a downside scenario for the S&P 500 and identified the level the index could move toward. Since then, this view has been confirmed, with rate hike expectations firming and central bank rhetoric turning more hawkish, driving both equity weakness and the recent correction in gold.

Indeed, Gold is correcting, but something much bigger is happening beneath the surface. For decades, one rule defined gold’s behavior. That rule has now quietly broken. Most investors haven’t noticed yet, and are still positioned based on a framework that no longer works. At the same time, a series of structural shifts are unfolding that could redefine how gold is priced going forward.

The question is no longer whether this is a correction… but whether this is the setup for the next major move. The divergence between what models suggest and what price is doing is now approaching extremes rarely seen in the past. And if this gap closes, the move in gold may not be gradual, but sudden and nonlinear. In the full report, we break down what changed, why it matters, and the exact levels where positioning becomes asymmetric.

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Gold (LHS) vs. Real Yields (RHS) - massive shift not recognized by the market

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The U.S. administration may have expected a swift resolution in the conflict with Iran, but the resulting surge in oil prices has materially altered policy expectations for the months ahead, particularly at a time when several U.S. equity sectors were already showing signs of technical weakness.

In this report, we examine the true implications of higher oil prices for inflation, using our regression model to estimate where U.S. CPI is realistically headed. This model accurately anticipated the sharp decline in inflation in 2023, at a time when most Wall Street economists were forecasting persistently high inflation and a U.S. recession, while our model pointed to the opposite outcome.

We also analyze what this shift could mean for Federal Reserve policy, the S&P 500 outlook, and which sectors are likely to be most affected. In addition, we outline the key levels where the S&P 500 could trade under this evolving macro backdrop.

This report builds on our February 17 S&P 500 Chart Book, which analyzes 28 charts across daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes, and is complemented by our ETF and Macro ETF Chart Book, featuring another 28 charts covering the most important sector and macro ETFs. Together, these frameworks help investors quickly identify where momentum is shifting across markets and how to position for the road ahead.

If you care about U.S. equities, global stocks, or commodities such as oil, this report will be valuable to you.

Included: SP500 Chart book (28 charts with daily, weekly and monthly data)

Included: ETF Chart book (US sectors, international/macro ETFs)

SP500 Index

Main argument

(1) U.S. inflation could jump to 3.36%, causing the Fed to hike

Based on our U.S. CPI–energy regression model, the current level of oil prices, if sustained, would push the fair value of CPI from 2.43% to roughly 3.36%. This represents a meaningful increase and would likely prompt the Federal Reserve to consider tighter policy to anchor inflation expectations. For the first time since December 2022, our model is again signaling the risk of rate hikes, while simultaneously pricing out any near-term rate cuts.

Regression Model expects CPI to jump from 2.43% to 3.36% if Oil stays here

This marks a notable shift in the macro-outlook. In December 2022, consensus among Wall Street economists was that a U.S. recession in 2023 was highly likely due to elevated inflation. Our model, however, pointed to a sharp decline in CPI, suggesting a strong risk-on rally, which ultimately helped lift both Bitcoin and the Nasdaq, as indeed occurred.

CPI vs. our inflation model

Today, the situation appears reversed: without a meaningful decline in inflation over the coming months, the Federal Reserve is likely to remain cautious, and the previously expected tailwind from future rate cuts is fading. This could prove to be a challenging communication environment for the newly appointed Federal Reserve Chair, Kevin Warsh, if confirmed, as markets are likely to test his policy stance almost immediately.

Our model starts to price in rate HIKES - first time since December 2022

The implications for markets are significant. Higher energy prices, rising interest rates, and weaker consumer spending represent a challenging combination for risk assets. These pressures affect most sectors of the equity market, particularly those sensitive to energy costs and borrowing conditions. As a result, we believe this macro backdrop will continue to weigh on equities, reinforcing our view that investors should remain underweight stocks for now.

These risks could also weigh on private equity and debt-financed assets, which rely heavily on low borrowing costs and stable consumer demand. In a higher-rate environment, pressure on valuations and refinancing costs may trigger even more redemptions and forced adjustments, potentially creating a negative feedback loop that amplifies economic weakness. The recent underperformance of the Financial Sector ETF (XLF) may already be reflecting these emerging stresses.

(2) SP500 Technical Overview

On February 17, we highlighted that negative divergences between price and technical indicators were likely to increase downside risk for the S&P 500, with a potential 10% decline toward the 6,207 level. At the same time, our S&P 500 trend model had flipped to bearish, suggesting that trend-following funds (CTAs) could begin shifting from long to short positioning. While these divergences have eased somewhat from their most extreme levels, they have not yet reached the threshold that would typically signal a renewed uptrend.

SP500 could drop to 6,100/6,200

As long as the S&P 500 remains below the trend signal at 6,891, downside risks remain elevated. The weekly stochastic indicator, currently at 56%, is still well above the levels typically associated with cyclical correction lows (20%), which tend to occur roughly every two years. With the index now approaching its 200-day moving average, investors will increasingly reassess their allocations should prices break below this key technical level.

In such a scenario, attention would likely shift toward the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement near 6,143-6,207, which coincides with the pre–Liberation Day high from February 2025. A deeper correction could target the 5,690 level, which represents the 38.2% retracement and aligns with support from the July 2024 high. In short, the S&P 500 remains in a developing downtrend, with weakening technical momentum, a challenged 200-day moving average, and weekly reversal indicators that have not yet declined far enough to signal a durable bottom.

(3) SP500 Sector and ETF Overview

Nearly all S&P 500 sectors are currently trading below their shorter-term 30-day moving averages, underscoring the broad-based weakness in the market. The Energy sector (XLE) is a notable exception, supported by elevated oil prices. More importantly, however, cyclical sectors such as Financials (XLF) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) are experiencing pronounced corrections, while even traditionally defensive sectors like Consumer Staples (XLP) have begun to weaken.

Unless oil prices decline meaningfully in the near term, the current environment of heightened geopolitical uncertainty, the repricing of Fed rate-cut expectations, concerns about slowing U.S. job growth, and emerging weakness in credit markets is likely to continue weighing on consumption. As a result, these sectors may remain under pressure until the S&P 500 approaches a more significant technical support level.

Crucially, the absence of a rotation into defensive sectors, such as Healthcare (XLV), also suggests that investors currently have few places to hide in equities. In such an environment, the more prudent positioning may be to reduce risk exposure, consider tactical short positions, or temporarily allocate capital to U.S. dollars until market conditions stabilize.

This cautious outlook is also reflected in country ETFs, many of which have failed to reestablish their uptrends following the recent correction. At the same time, the U.S. dollar remains firmly in an uptrend, with the $96 level acting as support for the third time since the June 2025 low, reinforcing the strength of the currency backdrop.

While silver futures continue to trend higher, the stronger dollar is beginning to weigh on gold prices, and rising bond yields are likely to create additional pressure on interest-rate-sensitive sectors. This dynamic could ultimately feed back into weaker consumer spending, particularly in economies and sectors that are already vulnerable to higher energy costs and tighter financial conditions.

Moreover, with the ongoing AI-driven data center buildout significantly increasing energy demand, sustained high oil prices could have a broader impact than during previous energy spikes. Technology companies, which are increasingly exposed to energy-intensive infrastructure investments, may prove more sensitive to rising energy costs than in past cycles.

Conclusion

This report is critical because it highlights a fundamental shift in the macro landscape, with inflationary risks re-emerging, potentially forcing the Fed to pivot from expected rate cuts to renewed rate hikes or at least a prolonged pause. As sustained high oil prices threaten to push CPI toward 3.36%, the resulting “higher-for-longer” interest rate environment creates a negative feedback loop for risk assets by increasing borrowing costs and weakening consumer demand.

Investors should adopt a defensive and risk-averse posture. Reducing overall risk exposure and remaining underweight in stocks until technical indicators signal a durable bottom. Tactical capital allocation into the U.S. Dollar, which remains in a firm uptrend and acts as a safe haven.

The sectors most exposed to this environment are real estate and consumer discretionary (XLY). Over the past month, the S&P 500 has declined by 2.7%, while consumer discretionary has fallen 4.6%, already showing clear signs of underperformance. Given the pressures from higher inflation, rising borrowing costs, and weakening consumer spending, this relative weakness is likely to persist.

However, with financials declining by 5.8% over the past month, the weakness is becoming increasingly visible in sectors that typically serve as key barometers of economic health. This suggests that underlying conditions in the U.S. economy may be weaker than headline indicators suggest, a deterioration that has not yet been fully reflected in the broader stock market indices.

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